Since this blog is now a year old, I’m initiating a new tradition
– pausing each December for an objective look on how I’ve done with my
predictions. Obviously, I won’t be right all the time, but I do accept responsibility
for both hits and misses in my predictions. So here is how my predictions in
all twelve blog postings since inception fared in 2013:
Hit or Miss? Mixed
Comment: AAPL is up 6%, but not as much as the market
because AAPL sunk further before rebounding. But sentiment did turn in 2013 and
AAPL rebounded 44% from its low of 390 on 4/19/13 to 560 today.
DJIA price change: 25%
Hit or Miss? Hit
Comment: Apple’s improvements in its office suite have continued
to erode Microsoft’s position, and Apple’s decision in October 2013 to bundle
iWork for free with a new Mac will continue that trend.
AAPL price change: 6%
DJIA price change: 25%
Blog Date: December 17, 2012
Hit or Miss? Bulls-eye
Comment: Most analysts expected Apple to build an iMac or Mac Mini
in the U.S. at a site unknown. I took a different path and predicted it would
be a new MacPro and the location would be Texas. Bulls-eye on both predictions!
DJIA price change: 25%
Blog Date: December 17, 2012
Hit or Miss? Hit
Comment: Since then, Apple has increased its market share in
China. That trend accelerated in the
third quarter of 2013 with Apple increasing shipments of iPhones 32% to a
market share of 8% in smartphones – all without a deal with China Mobil in
place. In October, Apple’s share increased to 12% versus 3% a year earlier.
Demand for the iPhone 5s has been so high that the gold-colored “champagne”
model initially sold for 10,000 yuan (US$1,630) among unofficial sellers in
China’s grey market
AAPL price change: 8%
DJIA price change: 25%
Hit or Miss? Bulls-eye
Comment: My prediction ran counter to most analysts, who were very
confident that Apple would introduce a full-on integrated Apple TV in 2013.
Such a TV is nowhere in sight, and most analysts have now backed off and
instead expect incremental improvements to the Apple TV set-top box instead
(which was my prediction back in 2012)
AAPL price change: 6%
DJIA price change: 24%
Blog Date: January 17, 2013
Hit or Miss? Too Soon to Tell
Comment: This still is the biggest risk to Apple, but so far the
carriers in the U.S. have been unable to wean themselves off the addiction of
market share growth/preservation that are associated with Apple’s subsidies. It
will be interesting to see if Apple extracted similar concessions from China
Mobile – no doubt the delay in closing that deal had something to do with
negotiations on subsidies. Keep you eye
on this development because it is still the biggest cloud over Apple’s profits
and stock price.
AAPL price change: 11%
DJIA price change: 21%
Blog Date: January 21, 2013
Hit or Miss? Hit
Comment: Few analysts were predicting this, but as I predicted in
January 2013, Apple released the new iPad Air/iPad mini in October 2013 and both
use IGZO in order to reduce the form factor of the larger iPad and increase the
display resolution to retina in the iPad Mini -- while sustaining long battery
life in both models through the IGZO savings. Next year, I predict IGZO will
come to the iPhone line.
AAPL price change: 12%
DJIA price change: 21%
Hit or Miss? Hit
Comment: AAPL is up 22%, which is more than the market
AAPL price change: 22%
DJIA price change: 18%
Blog Date: February 1, 2013
Hit or Miss? Miss (so far)
Comment: AAPL and Amazon are both up more than the market, but
Amazon continues to grow its market valuation faster despite poor
profitability. I still believe that there will be an eventual correction, but
it could take a long time in this market that still dismisses profitability as
an important metric for such darlings as Amazon, Tesla and Twitter. This
triumvirate should eventually see their day of reckoning, but not yet.
AAPL price change: 23%
Amazon price change: 50%
DJIA price change: 18%
Blog Date: April 19, 2013
Hit or Miss? Hit
Comment: Apple sales in India in FY 2013 rose 51 percent and China
rose 14%, and this is partly due to Apple’s creative financing options when
faced with a carrier that does not support subsidies. AAPL’s stock price is up
three times the market appreciation since I posted this blog.
AAPL price change: 43%
DJIA price change: 13%
Blog Date: April 26, 2013
Hit or Miss? Bulls-eye
Comment: AAPL has increased almost 3 times as fast as the market
AAPL price change: 34%
DJIA price change: 12%
Blog Date: September 29, 2013
Hit or Miss? Hit
Comment: Since my blog posting, Apple has launched iBeacon and the
initial pilot was even at Macy’s (which I used as an example). My prediction of
using iPhones as payment devices to reduce credit card fraud in stores will
take longer to play out, since it will take several years for the iPhone 5s and
its successors to dominate the iPhone installed base.
AAPL price change: 16%
DJIA price change: 8%
So overall, 3 bulls-eyes, 6 hits, 1 mixed, 1 too-soon-to tell and
1 miss. Not bad, eh?
Disclosure: I've owned Apple
shares since 1985
